Rate cuts ‘premature’ to think about, RBA chief says

Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock has signalled there will be no rates relief for the foreseeable future, as the central bank struggles to rein in persistent inflation.

A week after she announced the RBA’s decision to hold the cash rate at 4.35 per cent, Ms Bullock told a parliamentary committee on Friday it would be “premature” to think about a cut.

“The board remains vigilant to upside risks to inflation,” Ms Bullock said.

“It is premature to be thinking about rate cuts.”

The RBA has predicted inflation will not return to a target range until at least December 2024.

Ms Bullock said the bank’s strategy could change depending on economic conditions, but with consumer demand outstripping economic capacity, a rate cut seems too far off.

“Circumstances may change, of course, and the outlook is uncertain,” Ms Bullock said. “But based on what the board knows at present, it does not expect that it will be in a position to cut rates in the near term.”

Cost of living is front of mind as non-profits across the country issue dire warnings that Australians are becoming poorer as they struggle to manage basic costs.

All households experienced a rise in living costs in the June 2024 quarter, according to ABS data released last week.

Along with skyrocketing housing prices, data showed Australians were paying more for insurance and forking out more at the supermarket.

“We have been trying to balance bringing inflation back down over a reasonable time frame, without inflicting unnecessary damage on the labour market,” Ms Bullock said.

“And the board’s judgment to date has been that policy is currently sufficiently restrictive to do that.”

The Albanese Government has faced a wave of criticism from the Coalition over its economic management following the RBA’s decision to hold rates.

The opposition has bandied about claims public spending was fuelling inflation and that the government was trying to hide that it was at odds with the RBA.

But Ms Bullock put those claims to rest, saying home building, household consumption and trade are of greater concern.

“Public demand is not the main game at the moment,” Ms Bullock said

“The uncertainties around consumption, the uncertainties around residential construction, the uncertainties around trade … these are the things that can be critical to the evolution of the economy, inflation over the next couple of years.”

While all Australians are doing it tough, Victoria’s economy is having a harder time of it, RBA assistant governor Dr Sarah Hunter told the committee.

“We can see that some of the data for Victoria, in particular, it shows that the state is relatively underperforming,” Dr Hunter said.

“For instance, the unemployment rate in Victoria is higher than it is in other states.”

Unemployment has hit 4.5 per cent in Victoria, 0.3 per cent higher than the national average, according to jobs figures released on Thursday.

Wages growth is also at 3.3 per cent, dragging behind the national average of 4.1 per cent.

More to come.