Daunting map reveals Australia is in for ‘unusually’ hot summer

Australia is facing one of the hottest summers on record, particularly when it comes to overnight temperatures.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology’s long-range forecast model, most of the country will be in for unusually warm days and nights this season.

Sky News Weather meteorologist Rob Sharpe explained the likely “hotter than usual summer” is due to the warm seas we have surrounding Australia, particularly along our tropical coastlines.

“For Australia as a whole, nights are very likely to be within the top four warmest on record,” he told news.com.au.

“However, when taking into account daytime temperatures this summer is likely to drop down the list. Days are likely to be near-to-above average for much of Australia.

“This is due to the extra cloud, rain and storms that we are expecting for the country.”

Mr Sharpe said the Bureau’s current forecast for mean temperatures (days and nights) was close to 1.5C above the 1961-1990 baseline, “which would make it the fourth warmest summer on record”.

“However, some of the other global models are suggesting it won’t be quite as hot as that,” he added.

“Our forecast is that Australia as a whole should see a summer in the top ten hottest on record – primarily aided by the warm seas and the influence of climate change.”

The Bureau predicts above average maximum and minimum temperatures are likely (60 per cent) to very likely (a greater than 80 per cent chance) across most of Australia.

It says unusually high minimum temperatures are very likely particularly across the north, parts of NSW and in Tasmania.

The Bureau defines unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures as those in the warmest 20 per cent of November to January days and nights between 1981 and 2018.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s model simulates evolutions in the state of the atmosphere and oceans for the coming months using millions of observations from satellites and instruments on land and at sea.

A map of Australia coloured in solid red, published by the Bureau, paints a daunting picture of the coming heat.

It depicts a greater than 80 per cent chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature between December and February – right across the country.

The image was shared overnight on Reddit, prompting concern about how some Australians will cope working outside or with no airconditioning.

“I’m going to start saving money now so I can pay the upcoming airconditioning bills,” wrote one person.

“Our rental doesn’t have aircon or even ceiling fans. Pray for me,” added another.

“I work outdoors 40-50 hours a week and live in a share house without any form of cooling beyond a Kmart fan that oscillates between my partner and I. I’m genuinely concerned,” shared someone else.

“I hate summer to begin with, but this is going to suck so, so much,” agreed a fourth.

Bureau of Meteorology senior meteorologist Angus Hines said the forecast of above average temperatures isn’t “super uncommon” anymore.

“The climate warm in recent decades, it’s very common that we do see temperatures shake out,” Mr Hines told NewsWire.

“Pretty much the entirety of the last decade we’ve had summers that sit somewhere above average.”

Above average rainfall is also on the cards for much of the country’s south and east, according to BOM’s long-range forecast.

The Bureau of Meteorology last week urged communities to prepare for Australia’s upcoming severe weather season; when it is the peak time for tropical cyclones, severe thunderstorms, flooding, heatwaves and bushfires.

“Tropical cyclone activity varies from year to year but an average of four tropical cyclones cross Australia’s coast each year,” BOM national community information manager Andrea Peace said.

“Based on historical patterns alone, a near average number of tropical cyclones in the Australian region could be expected this season, with a higher proportion likely to be more severe.

“Any tropical cyclone can be dangerous, and it only takes one to significantly impact communities. Last year we had eight tropical cyclones across northern Australia waters. Four crossed our coast bringing damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to flooding.”

Ms Pearce also warned of a potential early start to the fire season in parts of South Australia and Victoria, and extending to Tasmania if there are warm and dry conditions leading into summer.