Change likely in Queensland election

It’s finally election day in Queensland with latest polling predicting the LNP will claim victory for the first time in nearly a decade, but it could be closer than expected.

The latest Newspoll revealed on Friday showed the Liberal National Party opposition was leading Premier Steven Miles’s Labor government 52.5 to 47.5 per cent after preferences.

If the polls are correct, that would mean the LNP will secure at least the 13 seats they need to claim victory in the 93-seat parliament.

Heading into the election, Labor held 51 seats, with LNP on 35 seats.

Griffith University politics lecturer Paul Williams said while the tightening of the gap between the two parties in the last week of the election was “astonishing”, it’s clear that “Steven Miles will not be premier”.

Dr Williams said the 5.7 per cent swing away from Labor – if it is uniform – means the LNP would likely win 13 seats, one more than they require to govern.

“While it’s possible there might be a hung parliament, I think it’s quite unlikely,” he said.

“I think their worst case scenario with be 47-48 but they may get low 50s.

“What we do know now is that the 60 plus (seats) that they were guaranteed a month ago at the beginning of the campaign is not going to happen.”

Dr Williams said there would be big swings in several regions, including the three seats in north Queensland – Townsville, Thuringowa and Mundingburra, a seat once held by Mr Crisafulli.

Labor currently holds those three seats on margin respectively of 3.1 per cent, 3.25 per cent and 3.93 per cent.

Dr Williams said polling suggested the Katter’s Australian Party would win Townsville.

He said those right-leaning voters in north Queensland might not be happy with a “moderate who lives on the Gold Coast” as head of the LNP.

“North Queensland LNP voters are different from southern Queensland LNP voters,” Dr Williams said.

“I don’t think your Townsville and Cairns voters would see Crisafulli as one of them but they’re happy to have him if it means getting rid of Labor.

“Those very conservative voters who may peel off LNP and go for someone who is very right wing, someone like the Katter’s and One Nation.”

KAP currently holds four seats on the crossbench, joining the Greens with two plus the only independent seat in Queensland, held by Noosa MP Sandy Bolton.

Meanwhile, Mr Miles’ personal support has slightly improved by jumping ahead as preferred premier, ­leading Mr Crisafulli 45-42 per cent, according to Friday’s Newspoll.

The Premier trailed is opponent 39-46 per cent in the previous Newspoll in September.

Dr Williams said Mr Miles jump in ratings was “astonishing”.

“Labor’s campaign has been near flawless, there’s been a couple of minor gaps but it’s been near textbook,” he said.

“He (Mr Miles) has presented so well.

“He has presented as the humble, daggy dad and the fact that he’s fit and muscular and he’s self-effacing and softly spoken and omnipresent.

“Since he’s been premier for the also 10 months he’s been everywhere all the time means he’s built up his own profile.

“By the same token Crisafulli started off on what was a high base.

“For a long time he had more people approving than disapproving his leadership, but he’s also had a high number of voters of no opinion of him – up to a third.

“What’s clear is a lot of the undecided have plumped in recent weeks on the Miles side when they’ve gotten to know both leaders.

“Crisafulli’s obfuscation in terms of policy, the small target stuff has backfired for the LNP and the abortion stuff has been huge.

“The fact that the tried to obfuscate, made him look like a weak leader and Queenslanders don’t like weak leaders.”

Labor has won 11 of the last 12 Queensland elections.

Voting opens at 8am local time across the state before closing at 6pm, when counting starts.