LNP ‘wipeout’ unlikely as state heads to polls

Labor is expected to be turfed out of power in Queensland, marking the first change of government in nearly a decade, but last minute polling suggests the predicted LNP “wipeout” isn’t as likely as once thought.

While issues about abortion, crime and cost of living pressures have dominated the election cycle, it’ll all come down to which key messages have made the most impact on voters as they head to the voting booth on Saturday.

The LNP is likely to take back power for the first time since Annastacia Palaszczuk swept to victory in a crushing defeat of the Campbell Newman Government in 2015.

Labor has won 11 of the last 12 Queensland elections. The LNP, led by David Crisafulli, will have to win 47 seats or more to claim a majority in the 93 seat parliament.

Labor currently hold 51 seats, and the LNP have 35 seats.

On the crossbench, Katter’s Australian Party holds four seats, the Greens have two and Noosa MP Sandy Bolton sits as the only independent representative in the Queensland Parliament.

The Opposition needs to secure 12 extra seats to secure a win on October 26, with all polls predicting a likely victory.

While initially it was looking like the LNP would decimate the government in the first few weeks of pre-polling, a shock Newspoll conducted for The Australian and published on Thursday night found the gap has tightened between the two parties.

The poll revealed the opposition now leads the Labor government 52.5 to 47.5 per cent after preferences.

If that predicted 5.7 per cent swing were uniform across the state, the LNP would win 13 Labor seats and secure a two-seat majority.

Political scientist and UQ lecturer Adam Hannah told NewsWire that as the campaign comes to a close, the LNP’s messaging on their tough stance on youth crime has been drowned out in the noise of other issues.

“It’s clear the longer the campaign has gone on, the worse it’s been for the LNP and David Crisafulli,” Dr Hannahs aid.

“Their small target strategy of focusing on youth crime and then not necessarily proposing a very sweeping agenda on anything else hasn’t been very successful the longer the campaign has gone on.

“When the debate has shifted on other issues, like abortion for example, the LNP haven’t had many other issues to pivot on.

“Even though they’ve tried to match the government’s promises on cost of living, I still think Steven Miles and his team have gotten a lot of credit out of being the party who proposed those ideas and were willing to spend the money and get out in front of those announcements.”

Mr Crisafulli has promised to legislate the party’s Making Queensland Safer Laws which would also include his tagline “adult time for adult crime”, by Christmas if elected.

Meanwhile, Labor’s cost of living measures – including the popular 50c public transport fares which will also adopted by the LNP if they win – have been the main tagline of the government’s election campaign.

Labor have also promised to deliver free lunches for school aged children and other measures to keep costs low, including the $1000 energy rebate.

The Newspoll also revealed Mr Crisafulli had lost the support of some voters during the four-week election campaign, while Mr Miles’s personal support had slightly improved.

The Labor leader is ahead in preferred premier stakes, ­leading Mr Crisafulli 45-42 per cent, after trailing him 39-46 per cent in the previous Newspoll.

Dr Hannah said while it’s unlikely based on polling that Labor will claim victory on Saturday, the public support of the premier will have been a huge relief heading into the final days of the election.

“Certainly, the longer the campaign has gone on I think having a more substantial agenda, like the government has been able to go to the electorate with, has been a net plus for them,” Dr Hannah said.

“Also the more attention that’s been focused on the two parties and the two leaders, in the end that’s been a net positive for Steven Miles.”

But Dr Hannah said with more people voting early than ever before, it’s unlikely these last ditch efforts both parties are rolling out on the eve of the election will make a huge difference to the forecasted LNP victory.

“We’ve seen an increasing number of early voters, so a significant portion would have voted before election day which may mitigate some of the late swinging if we are guided by that poll,” he said.

“The wipeout that some were expecting maybe a month or six weeks ago maybe won’t eventuate.

“It’s plausible they could even force the liberals into a minority government.

“It’s a bit hard to say how that’s going to play out from here but certainly those options are on the table where they weren’t a few weeks back.”

Those seats Labor are at risk of losing in the far north include Townsville, Thuringowa and Mundingburra, a seat once held by Mr Crisafulli, which are each held by the government on a respective margin of 3.1 per cent, 3.25 per cent and 3.93 per cent.

Meanwhile, LNP also has its sights set on taking the seat of Cairns off Labor, which holds a margin of 5.6 per cent.