‘Probable’: ASIO raises Australia’s terror threat

Australia’s terrorist threat level is being increased from “possible to probable” in the wake of spy agency warnings that the nation’s security threats remain “volatile and more unpredictable”.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the change this morning at a press conference in Canberra with ASIO director-general Mike Burgess.

“ASIO is raising the national terrorist and threat level from possible to probable,’’ Mr Burgess said.

“Our decision reflects that the security environment is degrading. A threat level of probable is reassessed as a greater than 50 per cent chance of attack planning in the next 12 months.

“It does not mean that we have intelligence about the current attack planning or expectation of an imminent attack.

Mr Burgess said the decision was not taken easily.

“Our decision is not a direct response to the tragic events in the Middle East. At this stage we do not believe any of the terrorist plots we have investigated in the last year have been inspired by Gaza,’’ Mr Burgess said.

“Terrorist leaders offshore are not inspiring attacks onshore. This is why we did not raise the threat level in the immediate aftermath of 7 October.”

Mr Albanese said the decision follows a cabinet meeting today and briefings by spy agencies.

“My government’s first priority is the safety and security of Australians and this morning, I convened a national-security committee meeting to hear from the director-general,’’ Mr Albanese said.

“I want to reassure Australians that probable does not mean inevitable and it does not mean it is intelligence about an imminent threat or danger. But the advice that we have received is that more Australians are embracing a more diverse range of extreme ideologies and it is our responsibility to be vigilant.

“To be clear, this is the same threat level that was in place in Australia for more than eight years before it was lowered in November of 2022. At that time, we said as a government, it does not mean the threat from terrorism is extinguished. Since then we have seen a global rise in politically motivated violence and extremists.”

Mr Burgess said it did not mean there was any imminent threat of a terrorist attack in Australia.

“Australia’s security environment is more volatile and more unpredictable, you’ve heard me say many times of espionage and foreign interference, our principal security concerns,’’ he said.

“While the threats to our way of life are elevated we are seeing an increase in extremism, more Australians are being radicalised and radicalised more quickly. More Australians are embracing a more diverse range of extreme ideologies and more Australians are willing to use violence to advance their cause.

“Politically motivated violence now joins espionage and foreign interference as our principal security concern.

“This includes violent protest, riots, an attack on a politician or democratic institutions.”

Mr Albanese said the warning from spy agencies was a reminder that “words matter”.

In response to a question from the media on the Greens, who recently accused the Labor Party of being implicit in genocide when it comes to Hamas in Israel conflict, the Prime Minister said some of the rhetoric was of concern.

“Words matter and it is important that people engage in a way that is respectful, that people don’t make claims that they know are not right in order to try to secure some short-term political advantage,’’ he said.

“Australia, for example, is not directly involved in what is occurring in the Middle East and yet if you look at the comments that they have made by some Senators and members you think that is not the case.

“Some of that is designed deliberately to encourage a partisan response in a way that isn’t appropriate. It is not appropriate for people to encourage some of the actions outside electorate offices and to dismiss them as being just part of the normal political process.”

During the press conference the Prime Minister and ASIO boss were asked “what changes practically and resources will be allocated to particular areas?”.

“Firstly for me and my agency and law enforcement colleagues, of course we are reviewing our caseload of assessed violent extremists,” Mr Burgess replied.

“Many of those we have assessed to have awful ideologies that are unlikely to go to violence. In this environment it is important to retest those assessments made to make sure we’re paying attention to the people we know about, of course it’s the people we don’t know about that I worry the most about.

“What do we do then? This is a matter for everyone, community leaders, politicians, the media, watch your words, watch your actions. Be very careful about that because there is a direct correlation between inflamed language and inflamed tension and violence.”

More to come.